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Posts: 22
I created a excel chart that extends until gold is near > $.1.
If gold prices continue to fall by the end of this month, it will cost about $.45 (+ or - $.05). By the end of the first week of October, gold will be at its lowest point which will be at $.20 (+ or - $.05). What do you guys think? Do you plan to wait and buy gold when it is at or near $.25? Do you except it to go back up? |
Gold Will reach > $.20
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Posts: 22
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Posts: 261
Gold needs a reason to go up.
as long as Blizzard is not doing a better job banning/restricting bots, I see no reason for gold to go up. Bots will keep collecting more and more gold, and try to exchange it with $, and they'll keep undercutting each others. EDIT: this could change if Blizzard introduces some new ways to sink gold in the game (like Crafting, but nobody crafts because the risk/reward is awful) |
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Posts: 376
Man, if we could only find a way to "short" this market we could make an absolute killing.
Know anybody who's willing to lend me 100 Million now? I'll pay it back in 7 days. |
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Posts: 411
I don't think gold will decrease linearly. That would imply that its decay isn't dependent on its current value, which it is. It probably looks more like a logistic function. That being said, it's impossible to predict the bottom without knowing how much gold is currently in circulation and how much gold is being created. I don't really have a good sense of that number and really, the biggest influence on that is going to be botters. A group of botters could control the Diablo 3 economy because all of their value is in gold, which isn't capped. It wouldn't be completely unrealistic to imagine some of these people having 10s, 100s of billions of gold in a stash. You asking 100M gold from them is like a homeless person asking for a nickel.
I wouldn't short gold; I don't think gold is going to decrease that much further. It certainly won't increase, however... at least not until the announcement of 1.05. I'm not completely sold on buying gold though, even at a rock bottom price. Why? Because I don't think 1.05 fundamentally changes the reasons to play Diablo 3. As we've all seen, 1.04 was pretty dramatic initially and there were definitely certain things that you could have made money on by buying pre 1.04. However, this change was temporary and now gold has fallen to an all-time low. This is because the game itself hasn't changed at all: farm to get items, sell items to get gold, use gold to buy items, use items to farm. At a certain point, people just get tired of it (it really doesn't help that there aren't many options/variations to keep you engaged). Paragon leveling was initially exciting, but it just feeds right back into the cycle of farming for items/get items to farm. When you think about it, the only reason to have gold is because you still want to play/farm. The only reason to have USD is because you realize at some point, you want to cash out and leave the game. I don't think 1.05 is going to motivate people to play. I think it will be a temporary diversion for long term gamers and I'd expect gold to rise a little bit. However, I'm not really convinced that it's worth the risk. Considering you have to account for the 15% cut when turning gold back into USD and on top of that, someone still has to buy your gold, the possibility of being stuck with a bunch of gold that has been devalued to nothing is too great. Overall, I'd say the best time to buy gold is probably now (before there is any announcement of the patch). Gold is pretty damn cheap right now and it's because people are in the dark and unmotivated to play. Release date news might cause a rise. I just think the lack of sinks and rampant botting has caused the economy to shift in the direction where a few extremely wealthy people can do whatever they want, but the majority of poorer people are completely stuck, grinding for ages for a minor upgrade until they get lucky or quit. |
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Posts: 122
Has there been a ban wave?
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Posts: 938
@xpoferens, I am not sure but gold is going way up. I would not be surprised if gold goes over $1 (per mill) soon.
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Posts: 122
I see one post mentioning ban wave, a few others saying that 105 might hit sooner than later.
I'd more believe a ban wave is at the source of this. |
