Gathering Wealth - What to do now?

Posted by Member nuhertz on 8/21/13 07:06 AM #1
Posts: 512

Expansion announced.

We have another STR class. We have the mystic. Current gear will become obsolete, new legendaries look fantastic.

How do you prepare now to make sure you're ready when the expansion hits?

Here are three things I'll be doing:
1. Sell mats/gems while prices are high. People will leave the game. Mats will spike momentarily, and then fall dramatically. Now is not the time to stock up.

2. Buy some cheap gear! People will be unloading gear to try to get some value out of it now. As everyone tries to do the same thing, gear up your favorite character so you can farm new content!

3. Paragon! Account wide paragon will be implemented based off your current paragon levels. I might be tempted to power level 3 or 4 Barbs to take advantage. Still not sure what I'm doing here.

What are you doing? You'll need lots of gold and some decent gear when the expansion hits, how are you getting prepared?
Posted by Member Dcozzi01 on 8/21/13 07:37 AM #2
Posts: 12

Why will mats fall? I would think they will increase in value. My thought is that people will look at their expensive gear and try to convert it to gold, gems, mats as they should all still be usable.
Posted by Member moloch154 on 8/21/13 08:04 AM #3
Posts: 57

I keep seeing in other forums that people say this will be an economy reset? I do not see how, and I am probably missing something. I understand that current BiS gear (and everything else below it) will become obsolete, but how will this redistribute wealth? People who still have a ton of gold/$$ will still have a ton of gold/$$.
Posted by Member nuhertz on 8/21/13 08:20 AM #4
Posts: 512

@moloch154
For a while, farmers will be king. Those who are farming and selling those AWESOME NEW LEGENDARIES (sorry, still excited) will have the money.

Those who buy and flip will also do well.

@Dcozzi01
You are absolutely correct, mats will increase in value. But we are talking about a period of AT LEAST 4 months, likely 10-12 months.

In that time, mats are going to rise due to the expansion announcment, fall due to people abandoning the game until the expansion, and rise again as people are coming back.

When do you want to buy?

Posted by Member ecocd on 8/21/13 10:04 AM #5
Posts: 1059

tl;dr, if investing for D3X now, buy up Spectrums, Hamburgers and clvl 42-46 weapons that have 14-18 level reduction; stay away from Gems, but bet heavy on Tears.

Did you see the dps numbers on the clvl 70 items? 3,000+ dps. All of everyone's clvl 60 equipment will be worth as much as the clvl 50 equipment is now. That is to say, entirely worthless. As @nuhertz points out, though, there's still probably 10-12 months of D3C left to play so there's no real reason to dump everything you own now.

Leveling equipment, though, will dramatically spike in value prior to the expansion. I wouldn't be surprised if Spectrums and Hamburgers have already spiked in volume. For more detail, though, we can dig into existing datamined info on item affixes.

While they can't drop right now, Blizzard has included alvl 70 affixes in the game code. MF on amulets, for instance goes up to 55%. The key is level reduction, though. Right now ilvl 63 items can have up to 18 Level requirement. Right now, the game has existing alvl 70 affixes that reduce level requirements up to 28! If we rationally assume getting those level reduce 28 items will be exceedingly rare, then we will have a very small bubble of D3C ilvl 63 items with 14-18 Level Reduce putting them in the clvl 42-46 range. Once you hit clvl 50, you'll have healthy supply of ilvl 64-70 items with level reduce down to the clvl 50 range.

The only other D3C items that will have value in D3X are the gems and mats and even then you have to wonder. I see two possibilities for Gems - either they increase the clvl requirement and effect for every existing gem or they add 2-3 levels of gems.

1.) In the case where they just buff every existing Gem, they're a great investment.

2.) If they add 2-3 levels of gems, existing RS gems will plummet dramatically in value. Blizzard will have to re-level the Gold crafting cost of each gem. Even if crafting RS+1 costs 1 MM gold, the Gold cost alone for RS+1 would be 46.2 MM. RS+2 would reach close to 150 MM. There's no way Blizzard would do that so they would have to drop the Gold crafting cost of the RS gems to something comparable to the scale now. RS gems will have to drop to under 2 MM Gold if they want RS+2 gems at around 20 MM.

I see investing in Gems for D3X as very risky with an 80-85% downside risk. They're still a good inflation hedge during the next 10-12 months of D3C so it's not like they're worthless right now, but that's a huge downside risk long-term. They want to reduce the number of Rares so Tears could very well become much more scarce and could be a good investment.

I also think there's a legitimate chance Blizzard introduces a new Expansion currency entirely (Platinum). Maybe it drops exclusively in Inferno or Inferno Act V. It could even be BoA and be the only currency taken from vendor for clvl 70 crafting and enchanting. Then who knows what good Gold will be? That's what I would do in their place, anyway.
Posted by Member nuhertz on 8/21/13 11:14 AM #6
Posts: 512

Posted by ecocd at 08/21/2013 10:04 AM


The only other D3C items that will have value in D3X are the gems and mats and even then you have to wonder. I see two possibilities for Gems - either they increase the clvl requirement and effect for every existing gem or they add 2-3 levels of gems.


What? Increase the clvl? What's your reasoning? There's no clvl requirement now. Why would there be one?

Posted by Member mentok1982 on 8/21/13 11:20 AM #7
Posts: 324

White items will become a crafting reagent. Does that mean an additional reagent, or will they replace an existing reagent? Although I find it very unlikely that an existing reagent will be removed.

So the new puzzle ring gives you a goblin that picks up whites and then the goblin drops a rare or legendary item after it picks up 40 whites. It would be nice if you could access the inventory of the goblin and take the 39 whites from it so that you can turn them into reagents. That way you wouldn't have to fill your inventory with white items if you wanted to turn them into reagents.
Posted by Member nuhertz on 8/21/13 11:25 AM #8
Posts: 512

No. What would be nice is a giant game full of whites. :)
Posted by Member ecocd on 8/21/13 11:34 AM #9
Posts: 1059

Posted by nuhertz at 08/21/2013 11:14 AM

What? Increase the clvl? What's your reasoning? There's no clvl requirement now. Why would there be one?
I guess you're right. My original reasoning was to ensure they're expansion-only items. If D3C level cap is 60, then making a gem require clvl 61 would ensure it's only available for expansion characters. I guess that's another reason to make additional gem levels. RS+1 and RS+2 could have 61+ clvl requirements to make them expansion-exclusives. I didn't think that through entirely.
Posted by Member nuhertz on 8/21/13 12:47 PM #10
Posts: 512

They also announced loot 2.0 updates would come to both the original diablo 3 and the expansion. Cool move there by a company showing they support those who opt not to go for the expansion. (I'm not sure who that is, but cool move anyways.)

Increased gem level sounds right in line. I expect that. I'm hoping marquise are no longer BOA and the top tier is.

I'm still going all in on rubies. There's simply no way a new class won't dramatically increase the cost of its corresponding gem.

Every time the price drops I'll be buying in.

I think materials are just as good of an investment, and tomes as always.

I'm curious on your bet on tears, what's the reasoning for that?

Leveling gears is a good bet though, and you can bet the price will drop through the floor. I'm anxious to know what rerolling with the mystic looks like, because that would make Mempos really attractive.
Posted by Member Bort on 8/21/13 03:18 PM #11
Posts: 551

So.... my original guess was pretty spot on.

All current gear becomes junk. Because of level raise. (like they do every time in WOW).

They pretty much have to do that to get people to play for hours again, and grinding gear again.


Also... as for the gem costs. It would be nice if their crafting costs comes down, but I won't be surprised if the value of gold simply drops. Currently the maximum gold pile I have seen is below 5000. So they can just give bigger gold piles and keep the gem costs as is. And increase more levels on top of that.

I wouldn't even bet on mats at the moment. I fully expect a new tier of mats as well.


Posted by Member douvinsky on 8/21/13 07:37 PM #12
Posts: 1445

Here are three things I'll be doing:
1. Sell mats/gems while prices are high. People will leave the game. Mats will spike momentarily, and then fall dramatically. Now is not the time to stock up.

2. Buy some cheap gear! People will be unloading gear to try to get some value out of it now. As everyone tries to do the same thing, gear up your favorite character so you can farm new content!

3. Paragon! Account wide paragon will be implemented based off your current paragon levels. I might be tempted to power level 3 or 4 Barbs to take advantage. Still not sure what I'm doing here.

What are you doing? You'll need lots of gold and some decent gear when the expansion hits, how are you getting prepared?


From my Hardcore's perspective:

1. Gain as much account-wide's "XP in Inferno" before the expansion hits, on living characters. Living as in not losing your toons as I believe Bliz will not take into account the XP gained on Hardcore characters who die. If not, I would be very happy since I have 2 dead high P-levels (94 & 67).

My personal strategy would be to keep farming using my main, since he is most capable of reaping XP at MP5-7. I will continue doing so until he hit P(100), then I will focus on my other low level toons (could still be a monk since I am better at this class) to stock up on these XPs.

2. Gear-wise, make sure I have a set of gears efficient for farming XP, loots and when the expansion hits, leveling up. For most players, they mean the same thing i.e. one set of gears for all these purposes.

My monk's gears are pretty good already, and I do not need to further spend on gears to improve myself. His role is limited to support only though, since he has been geared specifically for support. I expect when expansion hit I will use my monk for co-op (farming or questing) at the new content.

My barb's gears still need improvement. I will be using him for solo play mostly when the expansion hits. I expect to pick up some DPS gears cheap as people thought that "existing lvl60 gears would be pretty useless". Those gears are still valuable for players who hasn't geared up themselves, although people who already have "decent" farming gears might want to stop spending money on "minor" upgrades.

3. Speculation wise at AH:

I love speculation. The thing is, you gotta get the timing right. You need to know when to stop before the actual expansion hit.

I bought over 300m of mats at Hardcore GAH. Brims were at about 33k last night before I went to bed. They were now at 43k? this morning. I would take some blames on the rise, because when I made the purchase I already moved the prices of brims up a little, and perhaps due to this, I have started the trend/ fear/ expectation, whatever you call it. Waiting for a time to sell.
Posted by Member Bort on 8/22/13 04:45 AM #13
Posts: 551

Seriously... why would people panic buy now? It is still ages (possibly years) before the expansion.

Its the same like when brims were thought be great for crafting. everyone started buying brims left and right. And in the end only amulets used brims, and the price actually dropped when the expansion hit, instead of going up.

Personally I don't have much money (relative to some people here, relative to the full world player base 150mil is a fortune), I suck at AH, and I never bother to speculate.... but I also don't play the expansions / patches BEFORE they release.
Posted by Member douvinsky on 8/22/13 05:09 AM #14
Posts: 1445

@bort

For me, I am just bored outside of farming, and curious to see the market reaction.
Posted by Member Bort on 8/22/13 10:55 AM #15
Posts: 551

@douvinsky

I totally get that. And I understand and agree with what most people say. I just really can't justify to myself to do it. At least... definitely not yet.
Posted by Member ecocd on 8/22/13 08:05 PM #16
Posts: 1059

@Bort Some of it is actually an increase in demand, I'm sure. If I hadn't lost my Authenticator with my last phone, I would've hopped on for some farming runs before remembering why I stopped playing.

@nuhertz Releasing Loot 2.0 for Classic as well as Expansion isn't exactly alturistic. (a) There's no practical way they could implement a separate drop system on the same server. (b) it will sell expansion units. Assuming they're smart enough to release Loot 2.0 within a month of the release of the expansion, they'll be getting a bunch of people back on the servers before the expansion hits. If there were no expansion, there would be no Loot 2.0.

I'm still pretty excited about Loot 2.0, but I'm not going to shower them with undue praise for it, either.
Posted by Member Baldy on 8/22/13 09:10 PM #17
Posts: 706

With the increase in legendary drops, you can kiss any brimstone investments goodbye...
Posted by Member nuhertz on 8/23/13 06:25 AM #18
Posts: 512

@Baldy Unless brimstones become a primary component of some of the best mystic/crafting recipes.
Posted by Member Baldy on 8/23/13 08:57 AM #19
Posts: 706

Posted by nuhertz at 08/23/2013 06:25 AM

@Baldy Unless brimstones become a primary component of some of the best mystic/crafting recipes.


I'm holding out hope that this is true, but, I am not overly optomistic. I have almost 100k brims waiting to be cashed out.
Posted by Member nuhertz on 8/30/13 07:05 AM #20
Posts: 512

Well, gems are spiking, as is gold.

I sold about 100,000 FS rubies at 5500 gold each, when I bought at 1749 each. Selling more, listed in groups of 100k at increasing 500 increments. 100k at 6000, 100k at 6500, and 100k at 7000.

I expect them to start falling again as we hear when the expansion will finally be released.

Gold is also up, and if you're not going to be playing until the expansion, now is a great time to convert to battle.net balance.

RMAH has become more active, and I'll be unloading some more unused GG gear of mine, as well as extra gems.
Posted by Member thechosen1 on 8/30/13 07:13 PM #21
Posts: 4

gold up to $2.26 per 50m - i didn't expect this at all. interesting how it held at $1.40 for a week while the supply was used up. its a shame there's no way to gauge trading volume. I keep thinking its a good time to sell gold but it keeps going up. If only I could predict the peak here =) What do you guys think? will we see $3 per 50m?
Posted by Member Mehsiah on 8/30/13 11:56 PM #22
Posts: 248

Yeah these spikes are crazy, lol.
Posted by Member ecocd on 9/1/13 08:23 AM #23
Posts: 1059

So if the best estimate of the "everybody is bored" price is $1.40 / 50 m and the price iat the time of @thechosen1 's post was $2.26 / 50 m, that means a sale now at 15% cut is $1.92 / 50 m. Selling now and then purchasing when it's back to $1.40 in a month or two is a 37% ROI (for those of us in Illinois, USA that's a 28% ROI). Hmmmmm. Tempting to get my authenticator finally reset so I can login again...
Posted by Member Baldy on 9/1/13 11:24 AM #24
Posts: 706

FS Emeralds are up tp 11k right now.
Posted by Member MrFox on 9/23/13 08:41 PM #25
Posts: 92

I am guessing emeralds will appreciate , ruby will depreciate

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