If I'm done leveling my DH, I'm down for runs.

@yoyo
Trading advice for weaponthrow SoJs........... =P

On a serious note, yes, I'll help you out if you want it.

Posted by Khan at 12/01/2012 09:32 AM

If I'm done leveling my DH, I'm down for runs.

A-Team, assemble?

I'm always down for runs if I'm around.

Posted by NightCrawler9 at 12/01/2012 10:56 AM

Posted by Khan at 12/01/2012 09:32 AM

If I'm done leveling my DH, I'm down for runs.

A-Team, assemble?

Sure. A little later today I'm down. Almost there with my DH and I still need to hit the gym, Costco, and all that jazz.

Till then, this.

Bump for another successful MP10 run - this time with Nightcrawler/Mengy, MaesHughes, and Jiggaman.

The most trouble we had? The KW hunt afterward.

@Ammostiel Agreed on the KW (+2 elites, i believe), check that off the list of my year end goals. I think we could have done it without a reset, honestly.

Another CM wiz here, I'm down for mp10 ubers over the holidays. Finally got up to 3.0 aps with strech time on my wiz.

Another good set just happened. Me, Mengy, Baldy, Jiggaman.

All 3 and KW without a stack refresh. Minimal deaths. Pretty much couldn't have been better, and it was one of the best uber runs I've been in regardless of MP.

Looks like I need to get back in the game...

I'm always down for uber runs if I'm on.

So who's up for a uber-uber run this week/weekend sometime? MP8-9, 4 people, 4-5 key runs (helping cover missed drops) then 3-4 MP9-10 Uber runs.
I suggest MP8, because:
- monsters have 44% of the HP at MP10
- there's a 40% chance all 4 people get Key drops and an 80% chance at least 3 members get Key drops per Warden.
- there's only a 10% chance someone misses at least 2 Keys (hence a 66% chance all 4 members are missing no more than 1 Key)
- in three key runs, we can expect 1-3 Machines (6% chance of 0 or 4 machines, 25% chance 1 or 3 machines, 38% chance of 2 machines); add a 4th run and the probability of 3 Machines goes up; make it 5 Key runs and we'd have to get really unlucky to miss 3 Machines

At MP9
- monsters have 67% HP of MP10
- 66% chance of 4 Key drops per Warden for the party, 95% chance of at least 3 Key drops
- only a 3.6% chance of someone missing at least 2 keys
- in 3 Key runs we can expect 2-4 Machines (1.4% chance of 0 Machines, 11% - 1 Machine, 30% - 2 Machines, 29% - 3 Machines, 18.5% - 4 Machines); the 4th and 5th runs increase that substantially

- MP8 Ubers with 3 Machines, probability of 3 Rings for an individual is 12.5%, the probability of at least 2 Rings is around 85% and the probability of only 1 Ring is around 15% (50% chance the entire party find at least 2 Rings each)
- MP9 Ubers with 3 Machines, probability of 3 Rings for an individual is 39%, at least 2 Rings is 91% and only 1 Ring is 9% (68.5% for entire party to have at least 2 Rings)
- MP10 Ubers with 3 Machines, obviously a 100% chance of 3 Rings

Given that people already probably have some extra Machines sitting around, 3 Machines is all but guaranteed with 4 Key Runs, and since everyone probably has spare Demon Parts sitting around even 3 MP8 Uber Runs are likely to produce 3 new Rings per individual.

I thinking I should be available Sunday afternoon - evening (CDT) and then most of the week. We've found my Thunderball DH is a pretty good secondary CM (with 3x Sentry support and 30% damage reduction) so I would be looking for 1 CM and 2 melee bruisers.

Posted by ecocd at 12/22/2012 07:23 AM

So who's up for a uber-uber run this week/weekend sometime? MP8-9, 4 people, 4-5 key runs (helping cover missed drops) then 3-4 MP9-10 Uber runs.
I suggest MP8, because:
- monsters have 44% of the HP at MP10
- there's a 40% chance all 4 people get Key drops and an 80% chance at least 3 members get Key drops per Warden.
- there's only a 10% chance someone misses at least 2 Keys (hence a 66% chance all 4 members are missing no more than 1 Key)
- in three key runs, we can expect 1-3 Machines (6% chance of 0 or 4 machines, 25% chance 1 or 3 machines, 38% chance of 2 machines); add a 4th run and the probability of 3 Machines goes up; make it 5 Key runs and we'd have to get really unlucky to miss 3 Machines

At MP9
- monsters have 67% HP of MP10
- 66% chance of 4 Key drops per Warden for the party, 95% chance of at least 3 Key drops
- only a 3.6% chance of someone missing at least 2 keys
- in 3 Key runs we can expect 2-4 Machines (1.4% chance of 0 Machines, 11% - 1 Machine, 30% - 2 Machines, 29% - 3 Machines, 18.5% - 4 Machines); the 4th and 5th runs increase that substantially

- MP8 Ubers with 3 Machines, probability of 3 Rings for an individual is 12.5%, the probability of at least 2 Rings is around 85% and the probability of only 1 Ring is around 15% (50% chance the entire party find at least 2 Rings each)
- MP9 Ubers with 3 Machines, probability of 3 Rings for an individual is 39%, at least 2 Rings is 91% and only 1 Ring is 9% (68.5% for entire party to have at least 2 Rings)
- MP10 Ubers with 3 Machines, obviously a 100% chance of 3 Rings

Given that people already probably have some extra Machines sitting around, 3 Machines is all but guaranteed with 4 Key Runs, and since everyone probably has spare Demon Parts sitting around even 3 MP8 Uber Runs are likely to produce 3 new Rings per individual.

I thinking I should be available Sunday afternoon - evening (CDT) and then most of the week. We've found my Thunderball DH is a pretty good secondary CM (with 3x Sentry support and 30% damage reduction) so I would be looking for 1 CM and 2 melee bruisers.

Love the math, but I don't believe it is correct.

Posted by zerokewl at 12/22/2012 07:37 AM

Love the math, but I don't believe it is correct.

Yeah, I'm going to do some Monte Carlo simulations to work out much better estimates for each MP level and post them as a google spreadsheet sometime this week. That's going to be pretty accurate for probabilities of getting 3 Machines in n Warden runs.

If a full party is doing key and Uber runs, it might even be better to run the Key Wardens at MP4 or 5, because a good party should be able to slice through 5 elites and the Key Warden really quickly at MP5. The entire party could split up on each Act finding elite packs, call for reinforcements and have an entire Key run done in 5 minutes. I remember when we scattered in 4 directions on a post-Uber Key 1 run in the Fields of Misery. We found the Keywarden in under 30 seconds that way.

So I successfully ran 150,000 Monte Carlo simulations of Key Warden runs at every MP level. My original probability calculations were pretty close, actually. You can see the full results on this Google spreadsheet. To summarize the results, in order to have a 95% chance of having 3 Infernal machines, you need to make 4 Key Warden runs on MP9. Accordingly, for a 95% chance of three machines:
MP0-MP2: Over 22 Warden runs
MP3: 22 Warden runs
MP4: 16 Runs
MP5: 12 Runs
MP6: 9 Runs
MP7: 7 Runs
MP8: 6 Runs
MP9: 4 Runs
MP10: 3 Runs

There's a pretty steep difference between MP9 and MP8, but very little difference between MP9 and MP10, so it doesn't really make sense to go Key hunting in a party above MP9 unless your party can really crush MP10. 70% of the time on MP9 you'll have 3 Infernal Machines after only the initial 3 Key Warden runs. It also doesn't make sense to do party Key runs under MP7 (and definitely not under MP6).

On the whole, the party is rewarded for each MP level they increase up to about MP9 so when hunting Keys in a party, you'll want to stretch yourselves to play as high as you can.

dam nice guys... i haven't been able to do any ubers lately... itching to get back into it! maybe next year...

If real life doesn't interfere, @hdvision and I are up for some MP10 Ubers tonight. hd is a CM Wiz so I think we could use another or 2 stout melee chars since I can run a secondary-ish CM with a Thunderball support DH. Hit us up if we're online.

I got 3 machines ready to go go go.

Posted by ecocd at 12/26/2012 04:40 PM

If real life doesn't interfere, @hdvision and I are up for some MP10 Ubers tonight. hd is a CM Wiz so I think we could use another or 2 stout melee chars since I can run a secondary-ish CM with a Thunderball support DH. Hit us up if we're online.

Posted by hdvision at 12/26/2012 04:48 PM

I got 3 machines ready to go go go.

Ya'll can count me in. I have a few machines at least ready to pop off. @hdvision add me when you get a chance. I get home from work approx. 12:30 a.m. EST (it may be later with this f-ing snow storm we are experiencing right now.)

@Baldy Gah, you just missed us. Someday we'll actually connect and run the things a dozen times based on how many Machines you probably have stored up.

With the assistance of a p100 Monk of another party's acquaintance we ran through them with only me dying (a number of times, thanks to Reflect Damage - patch 1.07 can't come soon enough why is Blizzard waiting so long? I hate you.). The resulting Rings were 1 decent 5% CC ring and two putrid rings for hd and me.

I've still got 3 machines so we'll certainly get another group together in the future and they can pull my corpse along for the ride. I do at least contribute with my Marked for Death and +10% CC Caltrops.

Posted by ecocd at 12/26/2012 09:44 PM

Gah, you just missed us. Someday we'll actually connect and run the things a dozen times based on how many Machines you probably have stored up.

With the assistance of a p100 Monk of another party's acquaintance we ran through them with only me dying (a number of times, thanks to Reflect Damage - patch 1.07 can't come soon enough why is Blizzard waiting so long? I hate you.). The resulting Rings were 1 decent 5% CC ring and two putrid rings for hd and me.

I've still got 3 machines so we'll certainly get another group together in the future and they can pull my corpse along for the ride. I do at least contribute with my Marked for Death and +10% CC Caltrops.

No sweat brother man...I wasn't really in the mood for ubers after the [filtered] ride home from work I just experienced. Unplowed roads...unplowed expressway...unplowed driveway (what am I paying this guy for, anyways?) You get the drift....get it, (snow) drift?

I'm so funny...

Bummer I missed you guys! Work called and then I had to follow up on my Christmas present. The things an American has to do get a Russian firearm...