Posted by ecocd at 01/14/2013 07:00 AM

Posted by ninjax at 01/14/2013 05:49 AM

I actually found a nats with socket yesterday and high DPS (for a nats), may as well hang onto it after 1.07 as price may pick up like you say.

If it rolled 11% IAS I may be interested. I'll have to take a look at my 1H Xbow mule. It's because they're cold damage that they're low dps (cold damage tops out lower than all other elemental damage). If 30% chill proves useful in PvP dueling, it would open up a ring (cold SoJ) or gloves slot (Frostburn) for the cold damage and also open another slot and still retain the Nat's set bonus.

I doubt that will actually prove important enough to drop 300 dps on a primary weapon, but you never know.

Wow. Very nice drop. Hang on to that for PvP. It's certainly too rich for my blood.

I haven't posted much in these forums aside from the holiday giveaway (of which I won 100m, talk about lucky for my first time), and so I think I'll share some of my speculations and what I'll be bidding on.

I know the price of gold is at the floor right now, and that means high-end Legendaries and near perfect rolled Rares are most valuable. I believe that the legendary markets will be my first priority to bid on, however I'm guessing that once the new crafting recipes are out players will spend cheap gold on crafting. This functions as a gold sink, but we have to realize that it takes a certain amount of time for these recipes to drop (aside from the Archon Armor one which is sold from Squirt the Peddler for 1.5m, as stated in the 1.0.7 preview).

Therefore, I expect players to divy up their time searching for new recipes and crafting Archon Armor, while others spend time with the new Marquise gems. I think the latter will start pumping value into the D3 economy, and the former spends the cheap gold on getting themselves the best gear possible and farming Demonic Essences. Lastly, the fact that people will be dueling will also add a special element to the market. I predict that duelers will hardly affect gems values, instead they'll be opting for gear upgrades, spending money on crafting and experimental pvp gear.

And so what I gather from all my thoughts on the new patch is that high-end gear will have its value refreshed and increased first (I'm not sure what affixes people will want, but that can be figured out in the PTR). After that, when players start crafting and spending gold there will be a slight increase in gem prices... and finally when all the hype is over and everyone's gold is down the sink, when crafting mat prices go back to normal... When everyone switches over to playing their alternates... Then I think people will be most hungry for the sickest (but cheap) PVP gear to add to their account bound beauties: gloves, pants, wrists, chest, and amulet. Slowly, but surely.

Thinking about PvP, there might be a future market for Dex on Barb-friendly and Wizard-friendly gear. Dodging avoids 100% of damage so it's pretty important in the Dueling Arena.

Here are some notable breakpoints:
Dex / % Dodge
100 / 10%
500 / 20%
1000 / 30%
2000 / 40%
2500 / 45%

Every class needs at least 500 Dex and would certainly benefit from every point up to 1,000 Dex. Now Barbs and Wizards are looking for 1 or more pieces of gear with good Dex/Vit rolls instead of Str or Int rolls, respectively.

If the consensus minimum Dex is 500 then I doubt the market will move, because that requirement can be taken care of with the odd piece of gear (like pick-up radius) and an Emerald or two; however, if 750-1000 proves to be consensus minimum Dex level for all duelers, we'll see an increase in the demand IK gear with a premium Dex/Vit roll. In the AH, a premium Dex/Vit roll must be cheaper right now than a premium Str/Vit roll. Amongst duelers, that difference in value between Str/Vit and Dex/Vit rolls could tighten up considerably.

I don't know about you, but I definitely think Emeralds really need that boost in value right now...

Could that be the reasoning behind the continually increasing demand for Emeralds? Take a look at their AH tracker graph for Flawless Square Emeralds compared to the other gems. I sold some at 11k Gold last night. 11,000! I wonder if there are a lot of people that figured out the Dex-dueling relationship well before me and are stockpiling.

There has been clamoring not only on this board, but others for a White Gear Only dueling option, as well as a Blue Gear Only dueling option. I have to believe Blizzard is going to add this before the patch goes live.

In White Gear only, Most, if not all, duelers are going to be wearing Shields. It won't hurt anyone to pick up every white Sacred Shield, particularly the superior versions they find on their runs. A 20% Block Sacred Shield may be worthless now, but when the new PTR patch notes are released, they could spike briefly spike enormously. I wouldn't be surprised if perfect superior white gear of all armor types go for over a million gold on the auction house after white gear only auctions are confirmed on the PTR.

Yours for 20M ;)

In all seriousness, @ninjax, hang onto it. It only takes one slot on a mule and with 20% Balanced Darkblades going for upwards of 1M due to demand from WD right now, we know prices can go up considerably when there's demand for them. Without Azurewrath killing the 20% IAS market ilvl 63 1H Balanced market, the AH will be barren for a solid 2-3 hours after the patch notes announce a White Gear Dueling option. Keep an eye out for 19-20% IAS Balanced Rune Swords. I think the Rune Swords will be more popular than Maces & Axes, but there will always be a few people lured by a bonus to CC (without realizing at first that the crit damage is capped at 50%).

There's already a market for Balanced Exorcists right now, but those will also be in demand since DHs will (a) be able to dual wield them or (b) wear shields with them. So every DH will need at least 1, but possibly 2.

I still think Shields will be the most profitable, because the demand will be so high and they need both good +armor% rolls and good block rolls. A perfect Sacred Shield will go for at least 10 million if we get White Gear Only dueling.

Edit: If they implement a Blues Only dueling option keep an eye out for:
"of Invulnerability" and "of Interception" Sacred Shields for +blocking%
"Assailing" and "Lacerating" Gear for Crit Chance
"Raiding" and "Assailing" Gear for IAS bonus
"Chromatic" Armor for Resist All

Edit2: Here's a URL to a Google Doc I put together for the Blue affixes to keep an eye out for, in my opinion:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjALJGQbihpGdHdFMFdHUFA0NmVNRUFYX3R6eFBnNXc

I'm pretty much sitting on brims and TOS myself. I bought a whole pile because I think people are going to craft tons because of the gems. At one point I had 25k FS topaz and wasn't greedy enough, sold them all for around 1000. Haha!

Since players are considered "Elites" then SOJ's and skills/gear that reference additional or reduced damage will likely start to gain popularity/price. The elite issue was confirmed here.

Posted by Khan at 01/17/2013 07:27 PM

Since players are considered "Elites" then SOJ's and skills/gear that reference additional or reduced damage will likely start to gain popularity/price. The elite issue was confirmed here.

Wow. It's probably too late to catch deals on those now. Probably a 20-30% ROI on those if you got in early. I have 3 sitting in my stash for my other builds. Sounds like they'll be worth cashing in.

Posted by ecocd at 01/18/2013 08:12 AM

Posted by Khan at 01/17/2013 07:27 PM

Since players are considered "Elites" then SOJ's and skills/gear that reference additional or reduced damage will likely start to gain popularity/price. The elite issue was confirmed here.

Wow. It's probably too late to catch deals on those now. Probably a 20-30% ROI on those if you got in early. I have 3 sitting in my stash for my other builds. Sounds like they'll be worth cashing in.

There's also the Legacy of Wicked Dreams set that reduces and adds elite damage. Chantodo's set that reduces elite damage for wizards. Lets not forget the Blackthornes Set that also adds and reduces damage. Lots of options here.

Posted by Khan at 01/18/2013 09:31 AM

There's also the Legacy of Wicked Dreams set that reduces and adds elite damage. Chantodo's set that reduces elite damage for wizards. Lets not forget the Blackthornes Set that also adds and reduces damage. Lots of options here.

As of right now, I understand it's all one-shot CD fest. It seems like all of these won't matter if they don't scale damage or cap CD. 6% reduction of 120k damage means you're only slightly less dead.

Yeah right now its like a Halo game where everyone is running with rocket launchers and no shields.

Do you guys think that there will be a market for shields that have high block % (20% or more), good mainstat rolls (200ish) and good vitality rolls (150-200) with no crit chance? Cause I have some of those saved up.

Posted by mentok1982 at 01/18/2013 12:37 PM

Do you guys think that there will be a market for shields that have high block % (20% or more), good mainstat rolls (200ish) and good vitality rolls (150-200) with no crit chance? Cause I have some of those saved up.

20% or more? Yeah if its priced in line with those that actually have crit chance. I'd probably take my cues (in regard to price percentage) from mempos with CC and mempos without it. Or even nats or pox rings in the similar vein. Sometimes its a 30% premium. Sometimes its over 1000%. I bet people will buy the non-CC shield to experiment with survivability and then move to CC when they realize its something they can use.

Posted by Khan at 01/18/2013 12:44 PM

Posted by mentok1982 at 01/18/2013 12:37 PM

Do you guys think that there will be a market for shields that have high block % (20% or more), good mainstat rolls (200ish) and good vitality rolls (150-200) with no crit chance? Cause I have some of those saved up.

20% or more? Yeah if its priced in line with those that actually have crit chance. I'd probably take my cues (in regard to price percentage) from mempos with CC and mempos without it. Or even nats or pox rings in the similar vein. Sometimes its a 30% premium. Sometimes its over 1000%. I bet people will buy the non-CC shield to experiment with survivability and then move to CC when they realize its something they can use.

Thanks! :)

Many signs are pointing to a live patch Feb 12. Not guaranteed and this isn't the thread to discuss it's likelihood, BUT assuming the patch is coming Feb 12, we have the following big changes in mind:

Gems:
Marquise Gems - Account Bound Vanity gems
Rubies - Increasing damage, albeit only impacting clvl 15-30 and extremely niche builds

Mats:
Exquisite Essence - crafting Razorspikes
Iridescent Tear - crafting Gauntlets
Fiery Brimstone - crafting Amulets
Tome of Secrets - crafting Spaulders (and all other crafts)

I've invested a fair amount in all types of flawless gems diversifying my stock. I figure it's a 20% downside risk and up to 200% upside gain so it was a good time for my first speculation buy.

Using the Auction House Price Tracker let's compare: pre-patch notes price / Patch Notes peak price on 1/15/13 / current price
Exquisite Essence: 800 / 2040 / 890
Iridescent Tear: 130 / 570 / 590
Fiery Brimstone: 23k / 46k / 25k

FS Emerald: 5000 / 14,400 / 6000
FS Ruby: 800 / 7000 / 2400
FS Topaz: 300 / 2500 / 700
FS Amethyst: 700 / 2850 / 900

Iridescent Tears were odd in that they had a second spike when the recipe for Gauntlets was changed on the PTR from Essence to Tears. Strangely, Exquisite Essences (EE) didn't seem affected at all when the PTR changed the Gauntlets recipe away from them. I'm just guessing there's so much supply out there, any shock was absorbed without much notice.

Here are my guesses for the immediate go live peak and the ROI from Saturday prices:

Best Bets
FS Amethyst ~ 2000 Gold = 122% ROI
FS Topaz ~ 1500 Gold = 115% ROI
-- Amethysts had a very long burn on the PTR AH which means to me that people simply didn't have the 1 high-level Amethyst they needed for Brawling and I see the same thing happening on the live server
-- Topazes always perform well with a new Patch; don't know why, but they do. I wouldn't be surprised to see them spike above 2000

Good bets
FS Emerald ~ 9500 Gold = 58% ROI
-- I think there's a psychological barrier at 10,000 and the buyers just won't go above 10,000 this time around

FS Ruby ~ 3500 Gold = 48% ROI
-- The new Ruby levels just aren't any good. If the patch is released with the current damage levels, it may not even get up to 3500; if they increase the damage moving to live, this could easily jump about 5000 Gold

Meh
Fiery Brimstone ~ 32,000 Gold = 28% ROI
-- Those crafted amulets be sexy, but the supply will so far outstrip the demand, there won't be much upside here

Exquisite Essence ~ 1100 Gold = 24% ROI
-- The fact that the market didn't budge at all when the crafting recipes moved them away from the coveted Gauntlets tells me there really isn't anywhere to move here

Iridescent Tears ~ 700 Gold = 17% ROI
-- I think the market price is pretty much where it's supposed to be right now

I'm going to gamble on a few thousand Amethysts just to see if anything will come out of them, bought 3500 gems for under 900g each.

I think brim's won't bump much in new patch like you say but they will longer term. Everyone has brim's now.. but they won't after rolling their first 50 amu's.

I'm going to stay out of gambling on mats for the patch, wish you guys all the best though :D

Aaaaand Brimstones are already at 33k.

Tears at 800.

Edit: Tears at 900. If you bought them at 600, you're getting a 27% ROI right now.

I like Flawless Square Gems still. Trying to figure out where the market will settle, then going all in.

Oh, and thank the bots.....

I'm still betting on a couple thousand Flawless Square Rubies, hope the high end DH's start crafting their marquise gems when the patch hits!

I went ahead and pre-crafted 500 Perfect Squares (125 of each gem) last night before the servers went down.
My thought is that newbies, people returning to the game (after playing PoE or just quitting for awhile), and others will not want to sit around and craft the Perfect Squares required for the new Brimulets (TM).

They're going to want to jump in right away and "start playing the slots". 5 million investment, I hope I was right...

Posted by DePablo at 02/12/2013 08:41 AM

I went ahead and pre-crafted 500 Perfect Squares (125 of each gem) last night before the servers went down.
My thought is that newbies, people returning to the game (after playing PoE or just quitting for awhile), and others will not want to sit around and craft the Perfect Squares required for the new Brimulets (TM).

They're going to want to jump in right away and "start playing the slots". 5 million investment, I hope I was right...

On the PTR, Perfect Square Emeralds and Amethysts held their value far longer than Rubies and Topazes. I think you're right and you'll make at least 10% ROI after the AH cut on them. It's not my money, but I wouldn't hold onto those Rubies or Topazes very long.

Random factoid.

Last night on HC AH there were...ZERO perfect star topazes listed. Never seen that before.