Posted by Member Venoom on 8/29/12 05:02 PM
#51
Posts: 261
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A new idea for farming.
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Posted by Member zerokewl on 8/29/12 06:52 PM
#52
Posts: 816
I don't know about everyone else, but 80% of the legendary items I find are without NV or before 5 stacks, so I agree with this 100%! Almost feels like you'd find more legendary items if you avoided getting NV. |
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Posted by Member ertitoagus on 8/30/12 03:36 AM
#53
Posts: 19
You could change the char habilities instead of start a new run to reset the nv...
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Posted by Member ecocd on 8/31/12 02:53 PM
#54
Posts: 1059
Ran some numbers and with the Magic Find guide and with 200+% MF and 5 stacks of NV, they found 24 Set or Legendary items out of 15,656 items dropped by Elites. Each Elite drops, on average, 4.5 items with 5 stacks of NV. If you work that out, it's about a 0.015% chance of a given Elite pack dropping any Set or Legendary item. To have an expected 95% chance of finding at least one Legendary item, you would need to see 1953 items drop or about 434 Elite packs. That's an upper ceiling and there's a good chance you would find more than one Legendary or Set item in that time, but it does give you some idea of the work it takes to find Legendary Items.
If you're looking for the Ring, the odds are substantially less than that. Diablo pulls from the Treasure Class first and the Quality Level next. Rings at this monster level are extremely rare drops so not only does a ring have to drop, but it has to then drop as a Legendary item (about 1/130 chance per Elite Pack with 200+% MF and 5 stacks of NV). If we conservatively assume rings drop 1% of the time from an Elite Pack, you're looking at a 1/13,000 chance of a Signet dropping from any given Elite Pack with 200+% MF and 5 stacks of NV. What that means is I would guesstimateyou would need to kill 9,000 Elite Packs with 200+% MF and 5 stacks of NV to have a 50% chance of finding a Leoric's Signet. If you can average even 1 Elite Pack every minute, that means you'll be hunting for about 150 hours to have a 50% chance of getting a Signet to Drop. |
Posted by Member Metta on 8/31/12 03:37 PM
#55
Posts: 411
@ecocd
Really cool stuff. I appreciate you putting some relatively hard numbers on this nebulous topic. Upvoted. It does really give you a sense of how rare that signet is. I've played for over 200 hours and I don't think I even have 9000 elite kills. Even blasting through packs on normal, you're either going to need a lot of dedication or a crapload of luck to find that signet. That signet is truly d3's "black swan" :). |
Posted by Member Baldy on 8/31/12 04:27 PM
#56
Posts: 706
Irregardless of what the numbers say, I will find one of those rings....eventually.
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Posted by Member zerokewl on 8/31/12 07:56 PM
#57
Posts: 816
QFT! |
Posted by Member baccarat0809 on 9/1/12 11:23 AM
#58
Posts: 376
@ecocd - thanks for putting the math to this .... hopefully between us all with enough runs somebody here will find one .... but by that time they'll probably be level 100 anyways .... lol.
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Posted by Member Detski on 9/1/12 12:58 PM
#59
Posts: 30
@ecocd - I'm getting significantly worse numbers (for a 95% chance to get at least one set or legendary, I have that 19970 items need to drop from elites.)
(1-.00015)^x=.05 x*ln(.99985)=ln(.05) -.000150011x=-2.99573 x=19970 Could you breakdown your calculations a little bit, please? I tend to forget something silly when doing probability calculations, so hopefully you can help me find what that is this time. |
Posted by Admin DHAdmin on 9/1/12 04:20 PM
#60
Posts: 938
My friend found two today... lucky bastard.
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Posted by Member Baldy on 9/1/12 05:37 PM
#61
Posts: 706
Two what?? Leoric's?? Bastard!!! |
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Posted by Member Kysia on 9/1/12 05:57 PM
#62
Posts: 2
It sounds good in theory but I've seen people spend 30+ hours farming with absolutely no results.. Extremely high risk high reward. but then again some people like that and we can just wish you luck xD
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Posted by Member zerokewl on 9/1/12 06:07 PM
#63
Posts: 816
Do you know or can thou find out where they dropped? |
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Posted by Member ecocd on 9/1/12 07:13 PM
#64
Posts: 1059
@Detski Ah, I added a zero to the probability. It's 0.15% not 0.015%.
24/15,656 = 0.001532959 So your probability calculations are correct, but I gave you wrong p. Sorry. :( Given how many are on the Auction House, it's pretty clear the probability of it dropping isn't very close to my original assumptions. Part of that might be running with close to 375% MF, which would bump the probability of a given pack dropping a Legendary higher; it doesn't scale linearly and I think the improvement from 200% to 375% probably only increases the probability of a Legendary by around 1.4 instead of 1.875. The calculations start getting a little too complex for me to work out at this point especially. The empirical evidence of the number of items showing up on the Auction House indicates my base probability estimate is off for Signets. With regard to @Anuiran's friend, if someone could keep up the pace of 120 elites per hour and play for 8 hours, then there should be about a 7% chance of finding exactly 1 Signet and 0.25% chance of finding 2. I guess 1/400 chances do happen, but it's far more likely the that true probability of getting a Signet is notably greater than 1/13,000. |
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Posted by Member Slayer on 9/1/12 11:02 PM
#65
Posts: 5
someone sum this up, too much to read
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Posted by Member FurryJello on 9/4/12 08:38 AM
#66
Posts: 3
I've made a about a dozen runs and have found 1 legendary. It was Aquila Cuirass.
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Posted by Member Khan on 9/4/12 08:47 AM
#67
Posts: 1195
@slayer The TLDR: Its damn difficult. Like finding a specific needle in a stack of needles difficult. But not impossible.
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Posted by Member zerokewl on 9/4/12 04:47 PM
#68
Posts: 816
I just found this recently too! Shows we are in the right area as the signer is min lvl |
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Posted by Member LSOLive on 9/5/12 08:16 PM
#69
Posts: 23
All I've found were magefist gloves -.-... How much are the rings these days? I don't have D3 installed to check atm...
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Posted by Member EEYAR on 9/5/12 09:00 PM
#70
Posts: 33
I've been farming this for quite a while now and haven't had much luck. I do runs extremely quickly with 25% MS and Fire Walker's flame trail pretty much killing everything in my path for me. I also use Storm Armour (Scramble).
I farm the Oasis and have only found 2 legendaries, neither being the ring, of course. |
Posted by Member exodion on 9/6/12 12:54 AM
#71
Posts: 6
started this about a week ago, full magic find gear, have done 11 runs so far, the full run (royal appearance -> clearing oasis) have found 1 legendary, unfortunetly it wasn't the ring, it was "LOL SUCKS!" or something like that, crappy boots that sold for 100k. |
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Posted by Member mohhsinkhan47 on 9/6/12 02:13 PM
#72
Posts: 22
I actually found out some really interesting tip or fact if you may call it.
So I found out that legendaries are actually like regular items. They will have better rolls on there stats depending on your mf. I know some of you might already know this but farming legendaries with just your dps gear isn't enough to find GOOD legendaries. Yes, you will find some but they won't sell for much. I am still trying to find a good balance in farming legendaries and still making decent gold per run. My current build is a hybrid. Enough dps and decent mf. You can check out my post on How to Farm Legendries (Part 1) . |
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Posted by Member zerokewl on 9/9/12 11:22 AM
#73
Posts: 816
Randomly farming this still.
Found sin seeker lvl 8 quiver in oais sold before I finished next run for 99,999 gold Lvl 18 monk helm in ViA while getting my 5 stacks. |
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Posted by Member Khan on 9/9/12 11:37 AM
#74
Posts: 1195
I snagged one for 60 million. Went from level 18 to 21 very quickly.
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Posted by Member zerokewl on 9/9/12 12:33 PM
#75
Posts: 816
Third today called
The Zweihander. 2 handed sword. |